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Category: Background

The Universe of Iteration

The Universe of Iteration

Stanley Miller isn’t necessarily a well-known name if you’re not a chemist.
The scientist from the 1950s has proven how amino acid building blocks can emerge from nothing, so to speak.
All it takes is methane, ammonia, water, hydrogen, and electricity, in a certain mixture, at certain temperatures, time and iterations.

What was it like 4 billion years ago, when the first amino acids decided to join together to form living cells? The first unicellular organisms formed 100% of the known life in the Precambrian age and for what it’s worth, all the following life as well.
Stromatolites can still be found today, in shelf areas, always formed by so-called cyanobacteria, which are able to produce oxygen. As supposedly the first living organisms on earth, they are responsible for the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere. Life on earth was thus formed by chance, after various elements and chemical substances interacted with each other over billions of years. A product of repetition.
Over an almost infinitely long period of time, different events have been combined again and again in different ways. Until, by coincidence, life came into existence. An unstoppable chain-reaction that tried everything to use energy for its purposes. The apparent waste product of cyanobacteria, oxygen, enabled other, already adapted cells to enlarge and form nuclei. Eukaryotes were born. Here, too, a cascade of endless interactions with the environment was the reason.
Substances were processed, every molecule used, digested, absorbed. Sometimes the result was death, sometimes an advantage over other life formed and remained. Cells that only occurred in strange niches in need for more or less sun, with a specific temperature preference, or calcareous water.
The infinity of iterations began to unfold. The goal was to move on. Energy, transformation, survival.
As the first invertebrates emerged, the first explosion of species, the Cambrian Explosion appeared, which is still seen as the moment where life manifested itself in the oceans.
But the only constant that remained was that everything kept evolving. As the byproduct of this evolutionary cycle, a huge number of life-forms had already died which occurred much more often than survival. This mechanism is still active today.

Human Ideas


If you skip several eras of the earth’s history, the dinosaurs, several great extinctions, and quadrillion steps in between, then we arrive at Homo Sapiens Sapiens.
The number of iterations which the human organism has carried out evolutionarily until then is certainly higher than any nomenclature known to us could express. And this number will be exponentially higher in the future.
How exactly does mankind “iterate through evolution”?
Try to imagine something that’s never happened before. The other things are caused by trial and error.
Everything we know happened because people tried it before.
Aspects of culture in the form of music, film and creative art, technological achievements from mastering fire, other elements, invention of the wheel, steam engine, domestication of the horse, invention of combustion engines, fidget spinner, french fries with chocolate sauce, cage fighting, homeopathy, pipe cleaner, hoverboards, 4k cameras or distributed ledger technologies. It makes no difference whether these things are meaningful, sustainable, popular or affordable. They were discovered, used, and someone thought it was a good idea to focus their lives on it and monetarize, innovate every facet of this discovery.
This characteristic of infinite further development, of trying out, failing and shining, are characteristics that we find in other places.
In our simulations of artificial intelligence.
Sergei Ivancheglo (NXT, IOTA, Paracosm, Inventor first full proof of stake) has recently published a short article about Aigarth.
The visionary known as Come-from-beyond knows the potential impact of artificial intelligence and its possibilities on society which he explains as something that should be made available for everyone.
It can be assumed that the same unstoppable evolutionary force that has created and enhanced life itself also has an impact on the software progression.
Why should we leave a potential existential boost, a multiplier of the knowledge, possibilities, and solutions of our own lives only to special companies or rich individuals, when it can solve so many problems and simplify life for everyone, in every direction?

Ai & Aigarth

A vivid example was provided by a competition played on a Go board in 2016. Go is probably the oldest game of mankind, which is still played all around the globe.
The strange thing about Go is that moves and combinations can’t be brute-forced, because the number of possible game combinations in Go is about 10 to the power of 170 while the number of atoms in the universe is only about 10 to the power of 82.
Google’s AI project AlphaGo defeated the then reigning world champion Lee Sedol 4-1.
The training method of the AI, in this case, was to include all available human moves and tactics, video material, and so forth.
With the usual proceedings of machine learning, the algorithm was iterated millions of times to make it a true end boss.
This event called many interested people to the scene, but the event was outshined by a way bigger event a year later.
Namely, the extended project called “AlphaGo Zero” -a new approach. It did not train with human tactics, but instead started at zero (hence the name) and only learned to win along the known Go-rules. AlphaGo Zero destroyed AlphaGo in 100 games with 100-0. It created unknown moves, exotic tactics, and undeniable progress for the entire scene.

These insights are highly valuable because they prove that AI’s can create new knowledge that is superior to the limited human knowledge. If they receive basic information, rules and time and a specific task in a specific field.

Since human knowledge is very diverse, as described in the first part of the article, it can be concluded that it’s beneficial to build an AI in a decentralized AI service, like Aigarth, that collects and generates more knowledge in many different categories without many interferences and that provides more insights than a centralized service of a few entities. If it’s built on a decentralized ledger like IOTA and on a module for renting computational power like Qubic on IOTA, the conditions for secure usage of AI’s are provided. A possible tool for a responsible society that benefits everyone and that is easily applicable for specific tasks by everyone.

In 15 years we will know how such an impact can change our society. And whether iterations will bring changes that may shift the balance of power or not.
15 years sound like a long time, at first, but if you look at innovation timeframes, it’s really just a blink of an eye. World of Warcraft has been released 15 years ago, also Facebook, Skype, Firefox and Bluetooth. Time flies fast, but not as fast as innovation! These innovations changed society, and for the most part: the companies won. Time to set the course for a progressive future for the rest of us and to keep the number of iterations for ourselves as small as possible.

No, IOTA didn’t plagiarize anyone. Its approach is a novelty.

No, IOTA didn’t plagiarize anyone. Its approach is a novelty.

Since IOTA published its long-awaited information-update about the planned #coordicide, the usual suspects voiced allegations that IOTA didn’t really innovate anything.
If we’d listen to Eric Wall, Vitalik Buterin or to countless trolls on Twitter, IOTA really did nothing. Let’s look at why this couldn’t be further from the truth.
And take a closer look at the real innovation, almost everyone missed.

Here is a small overview of the most simple-minded assessments.
IOTA is, allegedly, a clone of or stealing from:

a) Ripple
b) Nano
c) Avalanche
d) Plain DpoS
e) NKN

Of course, it’s neither of those. At this point, it would be a good start to read the commentary of Marius Kramer, who is the #1 Cryptocurrency writer on Quora worldwide.

But first my own stance on those mentioned projects.
I believe the DLT’s above had their fair share of innovating the space, they deserve recognition and they are for sure one of the ambitioned approaches in the space, although I don’t agree with the permissioned approach of Ripple. There are use-cases for permissioned DLT’s which are run by enterprises, but they eliminate the thought of an open and free world, what Bitcoin was initially aiming for.

Anyway, let’s start with the non-content -> Nontent of the critics.


Nontent a) IOTA stole from Ripple.

I read these random comments on Twitter.
Those are the easiest ones to debunk.
The XRP consensus is a byzantine fault-tolerant agreement protocol which relies on a UNL, a unique node list. Which makes the whole system permissioned. Consensus is only found with trusted nodes in a list. This centralization is diametral to solving the scalability-trilemma that includes decentralization. All nodes know each other in the Ripple ledger (same as Stellar), unlike in IOTA where they only see the surrounding nodes.
IOTA will use Cellular Automaton in a decentralized matter, and a gossip protocol to delegate mana (an un-transferable reputation currency) to good actors while it punishes bad actors. A clear difference.
I explain the second approach by the IOTA Foundation in the next section.

Nontent b) IOTA stole from Nano.

Also on Reddit, people were postulating that IOTA would copy Nano, but in a worse way.
Nano uses delegated proof of stake voting variant called ORV (open representative voting). A BFT protocol. That doesn’t make it a clone, because having an engine in your car doesn’t make you steal ideas from other manufacturers. It’s only the basic approach. IOTA’s Cellular Automaton is an asynchronous voting process. Which differs from Nano’s ORV.
Since Nano uses a block-lattice structure, while IOTA relies on a DAG, the underlying structure is completely different and thus, the consensus.
As mentioned above, IOTA uses Mana and the Cellular Automaton.
Nodes in the Tangle won’t need to know every other node, while nodes in Nano have to rely on representatives. Representatives (ie 20 nodes in the ledger) lead to further centralization, while the shimmer solution only relies on the surrounding, local nodes around a node. A huge difference.
Another point is that IOTA has 2 different approaches in the pipeline.
The other one is the Fast Probabilistic Consensus, described here.
It splits the voting process into different rounds. A difference to Nano is that it doesn’t need to take care of a 51% threshold against majority attacks. With this second approach, even the worst possible strategy leads to healthy voting and guaranteed consensus.
To cite the IOTA foundation: “This voting process has the crucial property of converging very quickly, even in scenarios where malicious nodes are voting according to the worst possible strategy.

Nontent c) IOTA cloned the Avalanche consensus

I could compare the approaches, but I would miss the precise remarks by the IOTA developers on this topic.
Please click on the provided links and read the thread as to why Avalanche was not cloned by IOTA. The similarities are there, but that’s mostly because Avalanche used a DAG structure, which leads to similar solutions. It’s interesting that Avalanche didn’t mention IOTA in their whitepaper, but complained about IOTA recently.

Please click on the date and read Hans Moog’s answers.

To summarize: IOTA cited a publication from 2001: Paper. and there are still distinct differences.

Update: Prof. Sergui Popov reacts to the allegations.


Nontent d) IOTA uses Plain DPos (delegated proof of stake)

Again, it would be pointless to describe what was already explained in a very detailed manner. In this case by Mat Yarger of the IOTA foundation.

Please click on the date and read Mat Yarger’s remarks.

To summarize: IOTA’s mana gossip module works differently than plain DpoS, as it’s rather an additional header-value giving evolutional advantages. Saying Mana is DpoS is like saying Porsche is like an Opel, just because both use engines.

Nontent e) IOTA plagiarized NKN

This interpretation is factually wrong because IOTA didn’t even know about NKN.
Hans Moog replied respectfully.

Hans Moogs response to NKN

In addition, he promised to add it to the whitepaper and explained differences.

To summarize and to cite /u/theartofsaul on Reddit:
“Shimmer is based around very old research papers, just like NKN is.”

“The voter model originates in these two papers: “
1) P. Clifford, A. Sudbury, A model for spatial conflict. Biometrika 60 (1973), 581–588.
2) R.A. Holley, T.M. Liggett (1975) Ergodic theorems for weakly interacting infinite systems and the voter model. Ann. Probab.3(4),643–663.

Conclusion

IOTA evolutionized existing techniques and created a beautiful solution for the Scalability Trilemma.
Of course, some parts of the solution are based on similar approaches, but in Cryptoland it’s all about taking old approaches and improve them, to find the end-goal of scalability, security, and decentralization.
That’s exactly what IOTA did.
And just as a reminder: When Satoshi wrote his whitepaper, he cited scientists that created solutions for him, such as Adam Becks Hashcash – Proof of work approach.

IOTA’s is a novelty which combines all that is needed right now, or to say it in Marius Kramer’s words:

[…]very impressive. This is what DLT should look like, this is the essence of the blockchain. Elegant, swift, scalable, secure. It’s so simple and kind of overdue that we finally have a simple and fast consensus algorithm.


Of course, the implementation is not here, yet, and attack-vectors need to be tested thoroughly, but it’s more than a misconception that IOTA tried to plagiarize another project.

The real innovation is that IOTA improved existing methods and embedded them in a modular system that supposedly works way better than anything before it.


Interesting time ahead, don’t believe everything you read.

The indisputable truth about IOTA: It’s centralized.

The indisputable truth about IOTA: It’s centralized.

I’m Limo from Tangleblog.com, and for this event, I use a clickbaity title once. The following article clears up a few things, also a misunderstanding. I’m supposed to be an unstoppable supporter of IOTA. It’s true that I invested at an early stage, and people know that I produce IOTA centered podcasts and articles.
So why the unexpected paradigm shift? Bear with me, especially if you don’t like IOTA -You will dislike it even more!
The innovative sector of cryptocurrencies is on the ground.
Hundreds of billions of dollars have disappeared, hundreds of thousands of investors have been deceived. But I am not talking about IOTA in particular, but about the hype machinery that has ousted everyone.
The world needs innovations, not snake oil.
This world needs supporters, but not more businessmen.

So let’s get to the gist of all of this. Consensus was never centralized, but there was and is a practical single point of failure because the coordinator(COO) is a mechanism that, under these conditions, can actively stop the confirmation-rate on the tangle. Part of that is that no one ever developed a random walk implementation that could circumvent the COO, although they could have.

IOTA is centralized. Until it’s not.
IOTA doesn’t scale as advertised. Until it does.

I have never been a blinded supporter without any relation to reality. I’m an unstoppable supporter of progress and innovation, not of names or personalities.
This sector takes the money from the uninformed and gives it to the patient and those who are really aware of what’s going on here.
At this point, you should realize that I have not broken with IOTA, nor with the innovation tangle.
Exactly the opposite is the case.

A new era is approaching

Since I talked to two members of the IF, a completely new inner fire has been kindled, which gave me the incentive to write this article.
And here’s where you heard it first. This comes at a time when hype is without effect, to avoid a financial conflict of interest, although I don’t trade anyway.

The IOTA foundation has solutions for the coordicide. They are neither approved nor tested, but they are promising concepts that can withstand the first and second logical hurdle.
Now, if in a few days the local snapshots with the new, much more economical IRI version are presented and then later, the coordicide is carried out, under these circumstances, I guarantee that the wheat will be separated from the chaff around mid/late 2019.
To that day, IOTA will have accomplished its mission. The largest, most uncertain milestone: Coo-less decentralization will be reached. 

This news will harm in particular those who postulated in advance that this would never be possible, but then again they were only investors in competing projects or scallywags who wanted nothing but attention.
The project has reached a point where the network effect will multiply the coordicides’ impact many times. IOTA will be taken seriously, feared and implemented. If you want to spread FUD, this is the time, in mid-2019 it will be too late.
IOTA has hundreds of interested companies and developers ready with dozens of application concepts waiting just for the coordicide and removal of the bottleneck effect.

The tangle-concept has big supporters with Fujitsu, VW, Bosch, DXC Dach. It has connections to the ESA, to governments and to the top-notch security experts out there.
IOTA, the protocol invented by the German non-profit organization is on its way to a new standard, initiated by those who define standards.

2019 will be the year of IOTA, the year of kept promises, the “breakout year for IOTA” according to Dr. Richard Soley, Executive Director of the OMG.
We should keep in mind, though, that the IOTA Foundation has to take several regulatory hurdles and rounds until such a change on the protocol level is completed, but I’m absolutely positive that they will concentrate all necessary resources to solve this as fast and easy as possible.

If you ask yourself why this info is not written down officially, the answer is pretty simple: Answers will be given when they are approved (like those in the 4 part coordicide posts), and when they have been able to review everything, but ideas of this kind are here for quite some time. And besides a way too big workload, there is nothing to stop them.

Five Bullet-points of #IOTA Qubic and its insane implications and consequences interpreted.

Five Bullet-points of #IOTA Qubic and its insane implications and consequences interpreted.

As promised by the foundation, yesterday was the day the world received access to Qubic details and specifications.
Though, they didn’t promise that everyone would be able to understand the scope of Qubic right from the beginning. Considering how many people reacted negatively just a few minutes after the announcement, I’m convinced the majority of investors in the crypto-sphere need time to digest this revolutionary undertaking.
If you needed 2 weeks to fully understand what IOTA means for the world, you probably need another 3 weeks to fully grasp what Q can be on top of all of this.

Qubic is massive, the essence of disruptive and able to force industries to adjust to the needs of IOTA because it’s in their best interest.
Therefore, I don’t expect it to be ready before 2019 considering that Qubic probably inherits the functionalities of several other crypto-projects combined, while it’s running as a layer on IOTA.
The comparison to other crypto-projects, the due diligence and speculative consequences are solely up to the reader, so please don’t take my interpretation as investment advice.

Anyway, the most important innovations which will change the technological landscape forever were almost hidden among the rest of the explanations. And as revolutionary as they are they have absolutely nothing in common with the every day crypto terms. The mentioned specifics lay in the field of electrical engineering and semiconductor-technology, we come to that in point 1.
Luckily, I already found some great “overall explanations” about Qubic and of course, it makes no sense to write another one.
You can find a very good one here: What is Q? by James JD Sutton
At this point, with 10 minutes of your time, you should be able to understand it more or less.
Since I personally prefer complicated information in a context I already know and understand, I wrote this list of 5 bullet points and what this innovation means in detail.
Please keep in mind that the following list is my personal interpretation, no citeable information. Also, these are just the points I find most important about Qubic, but there are certainly more functions.

However, if I’m right, IOTA, the Foundation and Qubic will eventually change the industrial landscape forever.

  1. Efficiency, Moore’s law, CFB’s law

    The IOTA Qubic team created a programming language in order to implement Qubic everywhere in the world: Abra.
    “Abra is trinary-based because trinary systems can provide significant energy savings, a crucial consideration for IoT devices. One trinary digit, a trit, can represent 1.58 bits. The amount of wiring necessary for a trinary system can, therefore, be reduced to about 64% of an equivalent binary system, resulting in a corresponding energy reduction.” source: https://qubic.iota.org

    It finally makes sense that IOTA is building JINN ternary processors. Come-from-Beyond managed to find a way to use binary NAND gates with trinary logic. This is certainly not the every day crypto-news and you should pin this onto your wall. As an approved electrician who studied both, electronics and geography, I can tell you that even 10% energy reduction would be a revolution for the industry. But we are talking about a gigantic, unimaginable number of 36%. If you had doubts that IOTA could run in the IoT, this is the number one reason you should be happy instead.
    Of course, it remains to be seen if they can deliver but I’m convinced they can.
    To draw my personal conclusion:
    If Come-from-Beyond and the engineers of the IOTA Foundation manage to reduce the energy reduction of logical gates and wiring of 36%, they presumably bring the industry into the next evolutionary step in hindsight of Moore’s Law.
    One of the biggest problems in the semiconductor industry is to reduce the energy consumption. Transistors can be designed smaller and more efficient the less energy they consume. Then more transistors (which usually means more calculations) can be built in one CPU. This development used to follow Moore’s law, until recently.
    CFB changed this law. This means less wiring, less electricity, less heat, less power, but the same output because of Abra, the trinary logic and JINN. Moore’s Law would no longer be the relevant indicator for transistor-progress.

  2. The incentive to support IOTA, meaningful mining

    “There is no incentive to set up a full node in IOTA, spamming is even more senseless!”
    Although this is wrong anyway, with Qubic, these times are certainly over.

    What would be the best way to create a high hash rate in the Tangle?

    -To win over the miners? Nope. Some crypto miners, for example, are not exactly the party that likes to support IOTA. Even with better incentives, the ideology would make it almost impossible, in too many cases I assume.
    What if Abra, trinary logic and JINN create a landscape where all devices in the IoT are used for increasing the hashrate, in times when they are not used.
    I have 6 devices in my house that could be used for low level “mining” (ie validating transactions with pow – there is no mining in IOTA). If software would sell just 10% of the computational power of my six devices (which would be 36% more efficient then today) then I could constantly earn money with low efforts -and secure the tangle.
    Since we are in the era of electrical self-sufficiency, the power for that would be collected on my roof. No running costs would be generated. On the contrary!
    Of course, the more the merrier, meaning that I expect many people switching over to IOTA as the traditional mining misses one important incentive: meaning.

    Mining these days is nothing else than a trade of electricity for money. In the future, this incentive should be regulated as it implies the possibility to waste energy we shouldn’t waste, coal power for example.
    With IOTA and distributed computational power, however, people can set up Qubics and rewards.
    Example: I need to correlate two big data frames for a science project which would take four days with my laptop: I set up a reward of x IOTA and let miners solve the task if the quorum is reached.
    The network gains hashrate, I receive the results and the miners are paid x IOTA. Everything is done via smart contracts, Qubics and external computational power. A meaningful task.
    This is way ahead of all incentives we have in the crypto-sphere so far.
    Additionally: these incentives can also be bound to other services than mining. Full-nodes, public light-node provision, bandwidth, hard-disk storage, RAM, performing automated snapshots, etc.
    As a result, the network achieves true distribution and decentralization.

  3. The road to true distribution and decentralization

    In a network, where countless tasks are assigned, executed, transactions are conducted, validated on millions on computers and almost all industries, the network activity will grow to a four digits number of TPS and higher right after the release of Qubic.
    IOTA has the data marketplace, important features for data integrity, a great incentive to provide computational power and a market that demands solutions.
    An open source network that offers all solutions and costs nothing to shift value or data is the one perfect layer the industry is waiting for.
    Since the industry needs software solutions that IOTA is offering, it’s just a matter of time that it begins to rely on it. Presumably, this results in more transactions per second and ultimately a distributed system that is tamper-proof without the coordinator.
    Qubic is the missing piece of the puzzle to get rid of the coordinator. As mentioned in point 1, Qubic, Abra and the improvements will be so efficient that all problems that have been articulated by critics are suddenly gone.
    The IoT will be feasible, IOTA will be secure, distributed, 100% permissionless and tamper-proof.

  4. Interconnectedness of markets

    We know that different connectivities are a problem when industries need to send information between different devices such as apple and android. Therefore data and connection standards have been created in order to resolve these barriers.
    But in the IoT are also other barriers. Markets, currencies, assets.
    The financial world is not a homogenous field where trading assets and the connections in between are easily drawn.
    This can become a problem because some assets are important and affect almost every industry, but while the effects on the company and price are clear, the options to react accordingly are not, which means that companies could suffer before they could react.
    Qubic connects all world-markets with the Tangle. This way they create a landscape where trading, markets, services and prices become a global liquid construct that knows no boundaries in terms of functionalities.
    Example: Your company depends on lumber and oil prices. With Qubic, you can set up a smart contract, that is bound to external prices (via Oracles) in order to adjust the prices of your services which are changed automatically, depending on how expensive your expenses are (for lumber and oil).
    In the end, the company can ensure that always the best prices for services and goods are offered. They can calculate more efficiently and most importantly, everything works automatically.
    This mechanism can be brought into every industry, it can change expensive processes, reduce bureaucracy, improve efficiency and disrupt industries to a point where we can speak of an additional industrial revolution.

  5. Sharing economy powered by electrical and monetary self-sufficiency

    Let’s try to draw a picture of how we live in the future 25 years from now. I tried that with my series “Life in the future” part 1 (local economy) and part 2 (mobility)
    Now, especially in these cases, I emphasize on the ability to gain self-sufficiency in terms of finances and electricity, food, water.
    In a society where sustainable resources are used, independence and quality of life can be improved vastly.
    Qubic based systems can improve my idea of the life in the future even further because as part of the sharing economy, people can, next to producing electricity, produce clean water, offer mobility services, 3d printing services, and most importantly finance their life entirely.
    Everything they need for that could be powered by IOTA. For free.
    Sending microtransactions, secure data, sell electricity, sell comp. power, attach your service-prices to external sources, monitor crops, buildings and systems with sensors, sell the sensor data and raise the productivity.
    The future is efficient, autonomous and self-sufficient. Qubic seems to be the missing piece of the puzzle.
    I’m looking forward to seeing it in action.

 

 

 

 

Life in the future cap. 2: Mobility

Life in the future cap. 2: Mobility

My series started with the intention to improve the imagination we might have for technologies that will be a part of our lives in the future.
The first part started with an introduction followed by my ideas how the local economy could function in 18 years. A vast change in the economy as a whole and a vast change for the majority of people.
The following part will be centred around the mobility and how it will be a fundamental change in our lives in that sense, that we mustn’t take care of security, traffic jams, time management, maintenance of our car, theft, and manipulation of the odometer anymore.
But another part is that cars will become modular and thus:  create jobs and a new level of security and service.
This part and the possibilities of a highly advanced mobility sector are so exciting that my imagination knows no end.
As we are all aware of the consequences of fossil fuel-based engines, my thoughts are based on the assumption that 99.99% of all cars in 2036 are running on electricity only. At least in the advanced regions of the world.

A new efficiency

There will be many manufacturers that will create modular parts of vehicles. Depending on how you want to use your car, you can buy different modules from many different manufacturers. The modules are designed so that they always fit together as part of a bigger system. Every car has an engine and batteries part, a storage and utility part, and a passenger and function part. In the future, cars are wrapped in a skin of photovoltaic panels. Whenever it’s exposed to the sun, it’s generating electricity. The electricity that can be used to charge the battery or that can be sold and shared into the grid. The mobility sector could be able to disrupt common solar collector manufacturer, while they are standing in the sun, next to your house. Efficiency is one of the major improvements for the fourth industrial revolutions. I’m therefore convinced that car manufacturers will disrupt the solar collector industry at least partly if they decide to integrate the production of photovoltaic-technologies to their facilities.
The majority of cars will be autonomous. Even the law will adapt to that because statistically spoken, there is no advantage in controlling vehicles with a human. The interaction of algorithms and AI between sensors, the engine, brakes, and the necessary security mechanisms are far superior to humans.

The degree of efficiency of the photovoltaic capabilities of a car will determine if cars of the future need to be charged with charging stations at all. Some vehicles will still need a charging-station infrastructure as they have to be functional even at night, but many cars, especially small cargo vehicles can be run on solar energy generated “on the run” entirely. Solar panels today have between 15 and 21% efficiency, that means only a fraction of the available energy is actually transformed into electrical usable power. Think about what happens when the efficiency is increased up to 75% or even more. Cars would be able to generate enormous amounts of power, which they could then use for their engines, services or even to sell the generated energy after they have been parked somewhere. But a necessity for that will be also a better battery technology.

That means that if they still need recharging, it will be automatic, but to me, it looks like the technology could advance to a point where recharging becomes a rare event.
Since cars are likely to become truly autonomous, I expect them to take care of almost everything. That includes cleaning, maintenance, upgrades, annual tech check, sensor-check etc.
I doubt that in 2036, owners of autonomous cars will ever see a garage again as the cars will automatically drive to them once a problem comes up.
These ideas of a better efficiency are the true revolution of the internet of things and the fourth industrial revolution.
Less consumption, a modular, multi-purpose approach and an improved security due to autonomous decentralized systems.

Decentralized Software and Fog computing

Decentralized apps (dapps), that are running on top of a distributed ledger, can be integrated into the cars. In 2036 the computational power available in vehicles will be big enough to calculate a solution to every issue in real-time.
There won’t be a single point of failure anymore since the software is running on millions of computers which are inside of vehicles, that are connected via several different types of connectivities to the IoT.
GPS, WLAN, Lora-Wan, Bluetooth, Radio, 5G, 6G, cameras and LiDaR for real-time 3D tracking of obstacles and other vehicles will make the car the perfect sensor drone which will generate and calculate data simultaneously.

This information will fuel other decentralized apps, that will follow certain algorithms in order to interact with systems at intersections or important areas within the infrastructure. Traffic-jams won’t be a problem anymore. Machine learning algorithms can be fed with the behaviour of ants in order to tell the system how to prevent traffic-jam waves before they are happening. A machine learning network could be applied to several other systems as well, not only traffic congestion preventions.
Some systems could calculate the risk of aquaplaning in dangerous conditions when it’s raining. Driving behaviour can be adjusted if schools are in the near area or animals have rutting season. The security adjustments are a real innovation, a normal human couldn’t learn under normal circumstances. At some point, the reaction time is limited due to the latency of information that has to be processed in nerves, the brain, and our muscles.
Machines only have the limitation of the speed of light. Everything else should be possible if edge and fog computation is applied.

Since at least Europe changed the law in favour of their customers, the data that is generated belongs to the citizens, according to the GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation).
Especially in the mobility sector, this data will be extremely valuable because services and infrastructures can be adjusted to changing habits, to traffic, to consumption levels or higher demand for certain goods. When the mobility is autonomous and systems are operating in a fog-computing situation, then these systems need to be fed with data in real-time. Data which can be monetized.

Specialization

If we take a closer look at the modules of vehicles, then the possibilities seem to have no end.

A car can become an office, surgery, secure station (panic room), hotel room, delivery service, basic supply of medicine, they can even become little greenhouses that follow the sun automatically or in the future private planes that fly from city to city.
If people are in need of medical assistance the medi-modules can react in just a few minutes.  There can be either a human or a highly advanced automatic unit whose neural network algorithm has been fed with information in order to know which treatment fits best. The medi-module carries a license, the necessary tools and treatments and is always available.
There could be furthermore modules owned and maintained by do-it-yourself stores. Which can be filled with construction materials or tools and machines that can be shared for as long as people need them.
Cooking, cantina modules, a plumber, electricians, computer services or services one would find in a red-light district. The future holds all the possible technologies to enable a new world of service that relies on decentralized and modular systems.
An interesting thought is a modular car with a replaceable battery part. Whilst travelling long distances, the battery part of the modular car could be switched with recharged parts of countless owners along the way. Even a transition between autonomous cars and a trainlike speedway could become a possibility, where long “centipedes of single modules are bound together, that are travelling at high speed on railways for longer distances. Modular parts could attach or de-attach. The passenger does not need to leave his cabin even once, but he’s travelling through dozens of cities, stations and everything could be powered by sustainable energy in a sharing economy.
This way of travelling allows customers to receive exactly what they need to that time. Busy business people can do work and hold meetings, a developer can develop, women or children which are travelling alone are secure and every journey could offer a high level of privacy and comfort. Even decentralized cinemas could become reality.

The ownership of all of those modules could be a source of income.
Owners would let customers rent these modules on the way. They only had to take care of the maintenance, the infrastructure and the regulation. A perfect passive income source or option for businesses to create extra income while supporting a decentralized infrastructure.

Security

One of the biggest horrors on can face on highways or German “Autobahnen” are wrong-way drivers. These occasions are rarely on purpose, and oftentimes because elderly drivers confuse streets. If intelligent systems can be integrated into autonomous driving modules, it would be an easy addition to arm them with a wrong-way driver defence system in order to stop them slowly and to protect incoming drivers with automatically performed evasion manoeuvres that are based on the information other cars are sharing in real-time.
The same protection could be integrated for rear-end collision, especially if sudden weather changes are registered by sensors. Swarm intelligence and AI are perfectly suited to adjust to environmental changes, that would nowadays lead to more accidents.
Similar systems could be used to fight a fire, to protect citizens, and to fight terrorism or criminals.

A decentralised network can send data and value, but beforehand it has to be ensured that the information is tamper-proof and unique.
Only then, customers can sell and produce data which belongs to them.
The security of these autonomous systems is a game-changer.
We need an overall protection of goods, data and integrity of information. The typical odometer fraud will be impossible as the manufacturing of a vehicle will be bound to a unique hash-value that will be secure and saved in the ledger in the near future.

The mobile sector will be a good example of how the economy will adapt to decentralized and autonomous systems and how it will start with the loss of jobs.  Eventually, however, this enables value for the society and new possibilities which can be created with a sharing economy due to modular builds of autonomous vehicles and the creation of infrastructure we will need for that.

I assume that this will take more than 18 years because infrastructural changes take a long time, even if we count in that innovation will be accelerated in the next 10 years.
However, a basic necessity of all of my thoughts is a system that can offer the communication and secure transfer of information and value between all connected devices and vehicles.

Because the most important backend technology is one that combines a high-level layer of security through encryption with anonymous streams of information, tamper-proof authentications, which are filled with biometrics and individual passwords that make it possible to use all kinds of sensitive services.
A system that is able to handle billions of transactions between modules, facilities, customers.
A never-stopping cycle of information, values, authentification and confirmation that boosts our new economy and mobility. IOTA is the first distributed ledger that can work in this highly specialized environment.
No other crypto-project is partition tolerant and simultaneously scalable and free to use.
The possibilities are truly endless.

The next part will cover a sustainable energy-usage.

Thumbnail image: http://www.coroflot.com/vincentchan46/CitiTransmitter