Must-watch: 500 Billion Reasons why IOTA

Category: Speculation

Time is running. The IOTA coordicide is on its way and it will change crypto

Time is running. The IOTA coordicide is on its way and it will change crypto

A lot has happened since the IOTA coordicide was announced.
The coordicide is the complete decentralization of the IOTA ledger, which through its innovative solution “shimmer” presents a final solution of the scalability trilemma that can be the starting shot for a global transformation, without mining, without regrets, but in return, with real scalability.
A realistic wild-guess of the Mainnet implementation is mid-2020.

Crypto has been moving the masses since about 2010. Satoshi Nakamoto’s innovation has attracted hundreds of thousands of developers, innovators, companies, and investors and yet the question remains: “Is it all worth it?”

Bitcoin, as the industry leader, has enormously high market dominance and yet the criticism about mining is increasing, because the creation of the cryptographic currency consumes more electricity than entire countries.

However, Bitcoin has proven one thing to the world. Decentralized technologies have a lot to offer. “Banking the unbanked” by the “digital cash” was the mantra of the time when Bitcoin was able to show its investment strength for the first time in 2013 when billions entered the market and brought the public into a state that has remained to this day: “Bitcoin makes everyone rich“.
An even higher value was reached in 2017 when the peak at that time was multiplied to around $20,000 from approx. $1300 and many people became very rich, but in return even more new investors, or the dumb money, how insiders call them, lost their funds.

Another thing also became clearly visible. Bitcoin is not made for the masses. The maximum number of transactions per second for Bitcoin is about 7.
This circumstance and the technical architecture resulted in the fact that to the 2017 bubble, transactions were delayed over many hours and transaction cost in some cases over $30 or more.
No wonder, that Bitcoin was rhetorically transformed from Digital Cash to Digital Gold, as a public response to the need for explanation that it created.

So it’s pretty safe to say that Bitcoin will never again support “unbanked” in its current form if even people in the western world are reluctant to send values with it, and even the highly praised Lightning Network will not represent any added value in its current form, because hub centralization is already reaching questionable proportions that eclipse today’s centralization of the few mining pools, while transaction fees still exist here as well, and therefore, render most of the data markets useless.

Bitcoin as a pioneering technology has successfully demonstrated how a secure DLT can impress the world, but the technical hurdles are so deeply baked into the protocol that one has to wonder if not another innovation can and will take Bitcoin’s pool position without the baked-in limitations and without the harmful mining.

This is where IOTA comes in. The Coordicide solution comes about at a time when Bitcoin will halve his next mining-reward, when a third bubble may surprise and shock the public, because every bubble without a solid technical foundation will sooner or later collapse and leave many tears behind, as in 2017 and early 2018, when suicide hotlines dominated the forums and social media channels.

Bitcoin is a technology, not a sacred relic.
Technology can always be improved, assuming it has the necessary DNA.
In times of climate change, we are better advised not to waste energy, especially not the rather scarce renewable energy we need for more important things.

IOTA can completely replace Bitcoin, and it should not seek a currency substitute that attacks central banks but exists as a regulated currency that can add value to the Internet of Things through micropayments, data transactions, and data integrity.

IOTA’s prototype implementation “shimmer”, written in go, today already runs on hundreds of nodes, which will get dozens of new features over the next few months and will eventually be morphed into the new main-net.



Until then, investors should consider which horse they are betting on.

The next Industrial revolution is shaping the industry with giant leaps and Bitcoin has neither a solution nor a way to go other than the irresponsible mining in times of man-made climate change.

Bitcoin was a wonderful innovation, and the return on investment is a nice side effect, but not at every price and not under all conditions.

We need a solution, but no mining or a sloppy workaround that introduces new problems. IOTA’s coordicide is coming.

Time is running ⌛

What IOTA’s coordicide-update means for speculators

What IOTA’s coordicide-update means for speculators

If only I’d listened….

Following the foundation’s insane announcement, the DLT sector is changing, especially for investors.

Normally I don’t talk about the price development of IOTA, but that changes once for this happening. You can’t ignore this significant part. Investment is part of IOTA.
From the perspective of a convinced investor. Me.

What if your future-self travels back in time just to tell you that this one time you better would have listened? When we think about the speed of technologization, including advances in quantum computing and artificial intelligence, but also the exponential nature of this change, an event like this does not seem so abstruse.
After all, a problem that lasted for decades has also been solved and announced today: The scalability trilemma.

The Scalability Trilemma in none anymore

It seems so obvious to people involved that IOTA will overcome the sonic barrier of DLT’s, that I sometimes lack words, but I’ll give it a try.

IOTA is one distributed ledger asset of many and yet everything is different.
So let’s take a look at the brief overview and then to the more important part.

Advanced users should continue reading at point 2

1. The Past

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Litecoin are blockchains.
Cryptographic protocols that aggregate transactions into blocks in time intervals, link them sequentially to previous blocks and share them with all participants in the network via a trust mechanism so that there is agreement on the status of the amounts in the global ledger -a secure and decentralized excel-table.
From the outside, this characteristic is ingenious, unbreakable without further effort, and is still innovative even after several years of existence. Supposedly.
But a closer look reveals small design deficits that grow into insurmountable hurdles when used for long periods of time.
The blocks are filled quickly, the intervals are too long, and the way the trust mechanism works is too expensive and too polluting, as electricity consumption can in most cases be compared with some countries.
This results in a further, yet even more serious problem. The “time and money factor” is one of the most important balancing acts in any technology.
Blockchains or distributed ledgers also share this problem, with the rest of the world of innovations because the actual use of the protocols is only possible if the trust mechanism (consensus) is provided by monetary incentives. In other words, an incentive to keep the network alive and expand with computing power – Mining. This mining costs the actual user fees, which are charged for each transaction in advance. As part of protection mechanisms, the more people use the network, the more money the miners will have to spend.
It is, therefore, easy to deduce that additional use is not necessarily desired.
How can you serve a mass market with that?
Rising fees, long waiting times during stressful periods and an environmental impact of a country does not sound like an innovation, does it?

And that’s exactly why we have to note that the blockchains, which are still regarded as innovative, are already outdated in their present form.

Yes, there are considerations about how to overcome these baked-in deficits, but it is difficult for developers to find efficient and goal-oriented solutions since their original protocol is not designed for this. You can equip a bike with a Porsche engine, but that doesn’t bring you far, nor is it sustainable and secure.
Concepts range from the so-called Lightning Network to Proof of Stake solutions, or rhetorical solutions that are none at all. Eg “Bitcoin is digital gold” -some people say without realizing the irony.

The fact that this approach is not well thought out should, therefore, be obvious even to an inexperienced user.

2) Present limitations

Why should IOTA have a solution?
Well, many people have already asked themselves this question and so far it was a good idea to remain skeptical, but in recent months it has become clear that the IOTA Foundation’s development forge around Hans Moog has achieved the unattainable.
A solution for the time/money problem.

Of course, we can go to the technical level and crash through consensus mechanisms, list the competition, ponder for an hour whether this might be implemented in the old prototypes Bitcoin or Ethereum, or, we can simply enjoy the thought that IOTA was the first to make the breakthrough.

The breakthrough of scalability, which in the DLT sector is regarded as a perpetuum mobile, the holy grail of network technology, the “YES- we are not alone in the universe”-moment. I can’t emphasize enough how big this really is.

The work has been peer-reviewed by independent scientists and will have to withstand attacks in a test network environment the next few months, but I have been told that there is no reason to believe that there is an attack vector that makes the network vulnerable.

Just to round it up: Why can’t other projects do that?

-Because other projects give financial incentives to maintain the network and thus have to take fees.

-or have sequential series of blocks that create a bottleneck.

-Because other projects were built on the foundation of only 30 peers and therefore always depend on their integrity.

-Or because most projects were simply badly designed and cannot offer this kind of solution. -which counts for the majority.

There is one rule of thumb that can be applied. The more people use blockchains, fewer people can use blockchains. Doesn’t sound very logical, does it?

As an investor, at this point, it makes no sense to invest in struggling projects that might be able to work on a non-perfect solution in the future, if IOTA can already do it on paper. It’s only a matter of time before “Shimmer” is integrated into the main network and can send all concepts from hundreds of companies into production in a single step.

3) The solution

The advantages of IOTA are almost unbelievable.

-No fees. Especially with sensor data markets, you can send the smallest amounts.
-There is no bottleneck on the protocol side.
-There is no pollution from incentivizing mining rewards.
-There is no centralization.
-There are actually no disadvantages at all.
– The full list is way more diverse, like modularity, etc. But one article isn’t enough for that beast.

Read the whitepaper and the coordicide page (posted above) if you want to understand all advantages.

This opens up new possibilities, which were certainly aspired during the creation of IOTA as part of the vision.
The interconnectivity of all communicable devices in the Internet of Things.
Since this sentence alone triggers fear and anxiety among many security experts, the security aspect of such a decentralized network is most important of all.
Values must not be changed from third-parties, data must not be accessed and the network must never go down.
These aspects of a DLT will be fully achieved, without limitation in just a few months. The expectational value of such a venture is beyond gargantuan!


Since all global players in the industrial sector are involved in the Internet of Things, it is only a matter of time before the advantages of IOTA become obvious.
Everyone can participate in the network, no one needs permission, no one has to resort to expensive middlemen, which charge fees such as Visa, Mastercard or Paypal and censorship is not possible.
In addition, data can be monetized and cannot be accessed from the outside.
There is no company that can ignore these benefits unless they want to take advantage of centralization and have complete power over a network, but that eliminates the guarantee of a network-outage and thus the entire idea of a DLT.

Part of our future is certainly that we must strive for a brutal energy transition. Energy guzzlers such as blockchains are, therefore, of course, superfluous if the carbon balance is further burdened. Even in the case of a sustainable energy-supply of Bitcoin, it is questionable whether the regenerative resources are not needed for other things, especially in transformation phases that will undoubtedly come.

IOTA as a lightweight is, therefore, the perfect alternative for environmentally conscious companies that have to comply with new regulations because the Paris Agreement will hardly be ignored in the near future.

Another point is that through IOTA’s free data and value transaction, an energy market can be created. Neighbors can exchange electricity and money without follow-up costs. And that in a sustainable fashion, locally, without a middleman.

These peculiarities of the protocol will become interesting in all applications.
Car sharing. Toll-payment, sensor data sales, energy trading, e-commerce, data integrity, SCADA systems, autonomous systems, etc. The list is as long as the different Industries of the planet and is extended every day.

The IOTA miota tokens (1 miota = 1 million iotas) themselves can be split into the smallest units. Values in the range of 0.00001 cents can also be transferred. A novelty. There is no other secure and scalable technology that can do that.

From an investor’s point of view, this expense is, therefore, a simple decision.
If you understand the impact.

4) My price-predicition

My personal price analysis knows no end.
If IOTA has disrupted the DLT sector, it will be easy to penetrate large parts of the industry and ultimately incorporate large parts of the global GDP.

Whether this opinion is somewhat pompous remains to be seen.
Some innovations are indeed incredible. Like IOTA’s Shimmer consensus.
And in global times of industrial upheaval into a totally interconnected world, but also a compellingly sustainable world, we need a safe, fast, free and environmentally friendly protocol, which can only be deployed in this form with IOTA. Yes, you can criticize this sentence, but try to find an alternative. There is none!
Not to mention that there is no other protocol that inherits other perks like trinary calculations (for energy-efficiency), an oracle machine like Qubic (to represent assets and to react according to changes) and a quantum-resistant algorithm. The non-profit foundation from Germany isn’t here to impress anyone but to solve actual problems.

Therefore, if IOTA still reaches the (partial) implementation of Shimmer in 2019, I assume more than $10, and in the following years significantly higher prices in the range of over $500 per miota.

Because if you believe in this vision, where do you draw the line?

Is the vision of a global data and value transactional layer in the IoT just worth $3,12? or 20c? or $70?
My personal idea of the vision of IOTA doesn’t stop there. And I’m in for the long run.

In my eyes, IOTA is the new “Google of investments”³.

If only I’d listened

This is my personal assessment and not an invitation to invest. Investments in cryptocurrencies are many things, but not risk-free. Invest at your own discretion and only after sound research.

Picture used:
What only exists in the mind” painting by Jeffrey Smith.
Buy his wonderful art!
Artstation:
https://www.artstation.com/ascendingstorm

The indisputable truth about IOTA: It’s centralized.

The indisputable truth about IOTA: It’s centralized.

I’m Limo from Tangleblog.com, and for this event, I use a clickbaity title once. The following article clears up a few things, also a misunderstanding. I’m supposed to be an unstoppable supporter of IOTA. It’s true that I invested at an early stage, and people know that I produce IOTA centered podcasts and articles.
So why the unexpected paradigm shift? Bear with me, especially if you don’t like IOTA -You will dislike it even more!
The innovative sector of cryptocurrencies is on the ground.
Hundreds of billions of dollars have disappeared, hundreds of thousands of investors have been deceived. But I am not talking about IOTA in particular, but about the hype machinery that has ousted everyone.
The world needs innovations, not snake oil.
This world needs supporters, but not more businessmen.

So let’s get to the gist of all of this. Consensus was never centralized, but there was and is a practical single point of failure because the coordinator(COO) is a mechanism that, under these conditions, can actively stop the confirmation-rate on the tangle. Part of that is that no one ever developed a random walk implementation that could circumvent the COO, although they could have.

IOTA is centralized. Until it’s not.
IOTA doesn’t scale as advertised. Until it does.

I have never been a blinded supporter without any relation to reality. I’m an unstoppable supporter of progress and innovation, not of names or personalities.
This sector takes the money from the uninformed and gives it to the patient and those who are really aware of what’s going on here.
At this point, you should realize that I have not broken with IOTA, nor with the innovation tangle.
Exactly the opposite is the case.

A new era is approaching

Since I talked to two members of the IF, a completely new inner fire has been kindled, which gave me the incentive to write this article.
And here’s where you heard it first. This comes at a time when hype is without effect, to avoid a financial conflict of interest, although I don’t trade anyway.

The IOTA foundation has solutions for the coordicide. They are neither approved nor tested, but they are promising concepts that can withstand the first and second logical hurdle.
Now, if in a few days the local snapshots with the new, much more economical IRI version are presented and then later, the coordicide is carried out, under these circumstances, I guarantee that the wheat will be separated from the chaff around mid/late 2019.
To that day, IOTA will have accomplished its mission. The largest, most uncertain milestone: Coo-less decentralization will be reached. 

This news will harm in particular those who postulated in advance that this would never be possible, but then again they were only investors in competing projects or scallywags who wanted nothing but attention.
The project has reached a point where the network effect will multiply the coordicides’ impact many times. IOTA will be taken seriously, feared and implemented. If you want to spread FUD, this is the time, in mid-2019 it will be too late.
IOTA has hundreds of interested companies and developers ready with dozens of application concepts waiting just for the coordicide and removal of the bottleneck effect.

The tangle-concept has big supporters with Fujitsu, VW, Bosch, DXC Dach. It has connections to the ESA, to governments and to the top-notch security experts out there.
IOTA, the protocol invented by the German non-profit organization is on its way to a new standard, initiated by those who define standards.

2019 will be the year of IOTA, the year of kept promises, the “breakout year for IOTA” according to Dr. Richard Soley, Executive Director of the OMG.
We should keep in mind, though, that the IOTA Foundation has to take several regulatory hurdles and rounds until such a change on the protocol level is completed, but I’m absolutely positive that they will concentrate all necessary resources to solve this as fast and easy as possible.

If you ask yourself why this info is not written down officially, the answer is pretty simple: Answers will be given when they are approved (like those in the 4 part coordicide posts), and when they have been able to review everything, but ideas of this kind are here for quite some time. And besides a way too big workload, there is nothing to stop them.

Updated: The Next Bullmarket. Self-fulfilling Prophecies, Depression and Necessities.

Updated: The Next Bullmarket. Self-fulfilling Prophecies, Depression and Necessities.

A commentary.

It’s summer 2018 in the northern hemisphere but winter in the crypto-sphere. While Bitcoin started to move way higher than expected in November 2017, right now we’re even lower than October, price-wise. As a result, almost everyone that invested after mid-December lost money, and those who bought in October, but didn’t sell, too.

~813 billion Dollars peaked the capitalization on January the 8th. The market lost almost 600 billion Dollars until today.

The gigantic investment bubble took its toll on the majority of its investors which presumably learned an important lesson. Don’t trust crypto. And they shouldn’t.

A bear market is not a natural occurring hazard, it’s a mix of supply, demand and the influence of countless early investors, the “smart money” that have the knowledge and influence to manipulate the market in order to create a big return on investment.

Supply and demand, obviously the most important indicator for a moving market is also the easiest one to interpret.

How many people need crypto-currency today? Except for a few perpetual travellers and dark-net customers, I assume no one really needs crypto right now.

Sure, people use crypto to hedge against weak currencies, they try to improve their personal situation but if they are looking for the perfect medium of value transfer, Bitcoin, Ethereum or IOTA are not the technology they need in order to buy groceries, electronics, or to pay their bills. Not yet.

The demand is almost solely composed of speculators, short-term investors and those who heat the bull-market oven.

So, if you want to distinguish between an organic bull market and one that has been pumped with speculative energy alone, just remind yourself how many people really pay with crypto-currencies in their daily lives.

That being said, I think we can agree on an artificially pumped market that has been fed by the “dumb money“, also by expectations, greed, and naivety.

What can we do in order to get investors back into the system now that a big part of the dumb money is gone, presumptuously forever? I find an answer to that in the last part of this opinion, but you won’t like it.

The trust that has been lost in the last weeks is a currency we can’t generate with high hashrate but with honest information and an honest ecosystem that doesn’t only benefit the experienced traders.

This takes time. Warren Buffet said some interesting things in his lifetime. And no, this one is not about investment.

It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”

That being said, we shouldn’t exploit and exhaust this new market, because it could generate benefits for everyone, but we pay with reputation, a currency we can’t afford to lose in times of socio-economic tension and dangerous climate forecasts. We need the innovation ‘distributed ledger technologies’! But we don’t organize this new era efficiently in order to make it happen as fast as we need it.

What’s really happening is the contrary. Countless Wallstreet companies, ex Goldman-Sachs speculators and numerous Venture Capital companies are joining this ecosystem.

Only short-sighted investors should be happy about it.

Self-fulfilling prophecies

If you repeat it often enough, you can create your own reality.

Very influential people use their position. -of course, not a new phenomenon.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (220.000 followers) tweets:

Some other self-fulfilling prophecies are created by Venture capital investors such as Chris Dixon (582.000 followers on Twitter):
Venture Capitalist Chris Dixon Believes Bitcoin Will Hit $100k

Or even social media/yellow press cadaver such as John Mcafee who proclaimed that:
1 BTC will be worth $ 1 million by the end of 2020” – fans even created a website in order to push his prophecy.

In times of falling prices, an interesting example of how the ‘Wallstreet mentality’ was carried into this new ecosystem is that every market movement is explained and accompanied by quotes from successful investors, usually bullish.

The quote we all are sick of is Warren Buffett’s: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” And it’s commonly used by investors that want to change the market back to a bullish sentiment because their portfolio shows red numbers in times of falling prices and a bad outlook.

A better quote by Buffett is: “Honesty is a very expensive gift, don’t expect it from cheap people.” Cheap people, that are only in here to fill the wallets they created at Deutsche Bank, Western Union, HSBC, JP Morgan. The bad guys, or not?

And that is the wisdom we should stick to in cryptoland because the appearance of good news, hype and promises correlates with the appearance of people that could earn a lot of money if the mass market would follow their “instructions” and buy crypto.

Right now, no one knows how crypto-currencies will take a place in our daily lives, especially because these global protocols don’t meet the expectations of governments, which are looking for financial tools that go hand in hand with tax-regulations, transparency and control of the cash-flow.

As of today venture capital analysts take advantage of an unregulated pot of gold that promises an insane return on investment in a short period of time, faster than regulation can follow. These VC-investors act faster than the law so to say.

That makes this ecosystem so dangerous for new speculators that rely on crypto mainstream media such as Cointelegraph and Coindesk, which also happen to be in the hands of big venture capital companies from New York and London.

Lightspeed innovation doesn’t come without issues.

Depression

As a result of the shark-pond investors, the pillaging of investors and the hypocrisy of “mainstream media”, at some point, the overall bullish sentiment will hit a critical mass of bearish sentiment, harsh regulation and the wrath of uninformed investors that have been squeezed for years. That is the price we all have to pay because we allow vultures and hyenas to sit at the table before the herd has been fed.

Cryptocurrencies will enter a dark time if we allow venture capital sharks from the financial Mordor to apply the same rules to crypto that were responsible for the global economy-crisis in 2007 and 2008.

Margin trading, a Dollar backed crypto, Tether, that is used to pump the markets, mainstream media in the hands of investors and missing regulation that benefits the smart, big money only.

We shouldn’t underestimate the bubble of ICO’s we create, with private A rounds for VC companies and influential parties only, exchanges without trading fees and cryptocurrencies that supposedly strengthen privacy, but are used to wash money.

The majority of initial coin offerings create money out of thin, hot air. 30 million coins are created, one token costs $5 after the first investment round. We just created $150 million worth of technology with nothing behind it. And the first investors, the VC companies benefit and drink whiskey on the rocks from the frozen pool people are standing on, before they realize how thin the ice really is.

Arguably the most important investment quote of all time is Benjamin Franklins: “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

Knowledge is a scarce resource in a field that is about cryptography, math and economic relations. New people instinctively visit social media and look for influential persons with a huge number of followers, to check the legitimacy. If that person is the owner of Coinbase, Coindesk or other Venture Capital owners, I guess the outcome is clear.

People should take their time before they decide to put their money into crypto because if you follow the crowd, the headlines and quotes, you will end up investing after October.

Necessities

The evil word, not enough people accept as a necessity: Regulation. But after 9 years of innovation, we have enough evidence that regulation is important.

No? You might think that only a free market can work. If we stick to the old rules and accept inequality and financial black holes with no further meaning to the world, yes. Then we should continue.

If we believe in the creation of value, that benefits the majority of people, if we believe in a future of recreation of value, we should handle things a bit different.

We shouldn’t regulate “John Doe” though, but the financial actors, VC companies, exchanges, the big players. No one needs 300 million Dollar capital that has been created out of thin air and ice. It’s practically impossible to spend that kind of money in a normal, even in a luxury life.

If we don’t regulate this perversion, we accept sharks and a mass drowning.

So yes, we should regulate:

-Return on investment in ICO’s, in A round financing.

-Exchanges

-Venture capital companies

-We should investigate which players are creating the news because we cannot allow mass media that claims to be neutral when in reality, they follow the playbook of the great whites from New York and London.

-The media should be forced to use a certain standard that reveals the investments from the owners. In every article. If there are conflicts of interest, it should be regulated by law, that those are communicated transparently.

Would you accept ” ‘Green-news’  – the independent magazine about sustainability and fossil fuels“, if it was owned by the OPEC?  I doubt it.

But many people accept “CoinDesk is the leading digital media, events and information services company for the crypto asset and blockchain technology community. Its mandate is to inform, educate and connect the global community as the authoritative daily news provider dedicated to chronicling the space.” owned by the Digital Currency Group, Grayscale Investment (the same actors that are unequivocally connected to competing projects that attacked IOTA with false claims). Other Magazines are similar and also supply the ecosystem with questionable information. If you don’t have a problem with that, you deserve to lose money.

-ICO regulation. 15 developers don’t need billions of Dollars.

We shouldn’t accept ICO’s like EOS with 4 billions of investments, yes you read that correctly, four thousand million Dollars before the technology is built. That inherits chaos and an eventual bad ending. You don’t need to study economics or math in order to see that this is unnatural. There must be losers in a calculation like that. The losers are we, those who want to benefit from crypto-currencies in our daily life, with innovative technology, organic growth and adoption and of course, new investors, the dumb money.

If we want natural growth, an organic bull market, then we need to delete VC companies and ruthless actors from the equation. Because if not we carry the old problems into the new system, which could be the key component to solve severe issues in the supply of wealth in the near future.

In my opinion, the next bull market will determine, if this market will hit the critical mass of problems which were created by bad actors or if we see healthy regulation in order to protect normal investors and adoption.

I, personally, expected that the next bull market starts around August/September and I was wrong. Seems like the amplitude of the old bubble is still active and a longer sideways-phase follows.  Please be careful with articles (even with this!)  and price predictions you read in social media and crypto-magazines. Don’t feast with sharks.

The big bear market 2018, memories of 2014 and a comparison

The big bear market 2018, memories of 2014 and a comparison

The recent bear sentiment in the cryptosphere is everything but appealing.

If you decided to buy into Bitcoin or another crypto-asset around Christmas you likely lost 50-70% of your investment which is a catastrophe if you compare it with a normal asset or a stock.

In cryptoland, however, things work differently.

Back in 2013 and 2014 when the first big crypto bubble catapulted Bitcoin to slightly over $1000 the investment mania, the FOMO (fear of missing out) into cryptocurrencies started and is our daily companion since then.

One could say that everything we see on the charts today is completely the same as back in 2014 with the difference that today, billions of dollars more are in circulation.

Today is surely a day where we could assess the market and say: “it’s almost only going up from here”, and at this point, we might forget that we still see a total market capitalization of over 300 billion Dollars.

So technically spoken, we are still in a crypto bubble, compared to 2014.

New investors tend to overlook the fact that the overall market-capitalization has grown so much, that even minus 20% still make it a win situation for those who invested before 2017.

December 2016

For reference, the total market-capitalization December 2016 was lower than 20 billion Dollars (as a reminder: that includes all cryptocurrencies of coinmarketcap):

If we complain that we’ve fallen to under 300 billion capitalization we should be grateful that we don’t fall back to 17,7 billion cap (Dec 2016), which is just a bit more than the total value of Bitcoin Cash at this point.

Since the market has fallen tremendously for three months now, many chart analysts praise to have found the bottom of the bear at these levels but since we still hover around 300 billion cap, we should look at the reasons for the extremely high value of all combined crypto projects, instead of relying on technical chart analysis.

And the reason is simple: adoption, the most valuable asset of investors.

Adoption

Adoption relies on the following:

-unique features improve business models that attract new companies.

-an ecosystem creates a flourishing market that attracts investors.

-stable characteristics of a technology improve trust.

-improvements to life are visible to the layman.

-proper education of pro and cons for everyone available, not only in English.

-decentralization improves conditions against a single point of failure, that also applies to flash-crashes of the market.

-technologies and involved actors should be transparent and open for audits and reviews.

Today

Every single point for adoption has vastly advanced over the last 4 years a result of development and diversification. Of course, no project is perfect and reached its destination, but in cryptoland investors invest in the expectation value and not into the value of functionalities or properties right now, like oil or noble earths.

Compared to the long bear market beginning with 2014 when the hack of Mt.Gox triggered a long period of low prices and negative press about Bitcoin et.al, today, we have a serious level of adoption and many promising features that can be beneficial for everyone.

We can expect more than in 2014.

We have higher trading volume, way better options to exchange fiat-currencies for crypto-assets, way more options to spend cryptocurrencies on real-life products and most importantly, we have companies that explore the benefits of these new technologies.

Distributed ledger technologies are here to stay, the recent regulations that have been declared in the US, the European nations, and South Korea are everything but bearish.

It shows that the world has become aware of the perks and possibilities of blockchains and DLT’s.

Therefore I don’t expect a year lasting bear market like in 2014 because the sentiment clearly has changed.

Now it’s up to people in this sphere to work on transparent progress that solves some problems of the world.

My personal take on investment is: follow the best technological features and adoption, the rest is gambling.